NZTIF Business Survey to 30 September 2025

The optimism shown in our June 2025 survey where 90% of respondents expected improved business conditions in the 12 months ahead (a step up on the 75% in the March survey) has faded significantly.  In our September 2025 survey just 67% of respondents expect improved business conditions 12 months out, down 23% from June.  What is more, 8% of respondents expect business conditions to have gotten worse.  In our June survey, no-one expected business conditions to worsen.

In the immediate three months ahead, the seasonal upturn is front of mind with 42% of respondents expecting improved business conditions compared with 30% in June and only 16% expecting things to worsen compared to 20% in June.

In the past 12 months 46% of respondents reported lower levels of sales volume while 31% reported higher volumes. Lower sales volumes combined with unchanged or lower selling prices has led to an industry suffering a lack of profitability exacerbated by greatly increased production costs.  Despite this, respondents remain committed to investment with 54% planning to increase investment in plant and machinery in the year ahead and another 38% reporting no change in the level of investment.