US timber market prospects
As previously reported, while imports of timber into the United States are not included in the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that have been imposed by the Trump administration, the matter of import duties on timber is the subject of a Commerce Department investigation being conducted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This investigation may result in the President signing an Executive Order that applies tariffs on timber imports to the United States. These tariffs are applied when excessive foreign imports are deemed to be a threat to US national security. The current investigation may result in the tariff on timber from New Zealand and from other countries imported to the US being set above the base 10%.
Already, timber imports from Canada, which account for about 30% of United States timber consumption, are subject to a countervailing and anti-dumping duty of 14.4% which will likely rise to 34.45% later this year following a Department of Commerce review. The origin of this contentious duty lies in the US argument that Canadian timber production is subsidised because it is produced from logs harvested from forests that are growing on government land and the stumpage fees are artificially low. Canada exported around 28 million cubic metres of timber to the US in 2025.
The question then becomes one of, if Canadian sawmillers decide to exit the US market, will American sawmillers be able to fill the gap? (There is also the question, to be dealt with another time, of where would the Canadian timber then go?)
On 1 March 2025 President Trump signed two Executive Orders;
1 Addressing the Threat to National Security from Imports of Timber, Lumber, which mandates the Secretary of Commerce to investigate the effects of timber and lumber imports on national security.
2 Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production, which has the goal of increasing domestic timber production by 25% on federal lands to protect national and economic security while promoting sound forest management.
Both Orders are designed to bring about strategies to increase US timber production to reduce reliance on imports in the name of national security and to promote economic growth. Supporters of these policy initiatives cite employment and economic opportunities as well as forest health benefits by way of reducing overstocked forests, reduced risk of wildfires and enhanced habitats for wildlife. Critics cite environmental risks and economic inefficiencies.
New Zealand’s timber exports to the US reached 258,000 cubic metres last year valued at around NZD338 million. While we are very much a minor supplier of timber into the US market, that market does account for 14% of our timber export volume, 31% by value. We could be caught up in the fallout of what may eventuate as a result of the two Executive Orders.
Watch this space.