NZTIF Business Survey to 30 June 2025

Our survey for the June 2025 quarter indicates a rising sense of optimism twelve months out compared to the March survey.  Even over the shorter three month time frame respondents have suggested an improved outlook than in the previous quarter.

In our March survey no respondents believed that there would be any improvement in business conditions in the three months ahead whereas in our June survey 30% of respondents believe there will be improved business conditions three months ahead.

In terms of the expected conditions in twelve month’s time, a full 90% of respondents believe business conditions will be better compared to 75% in the previous quarter.  There were no respondents expecting conditions to have worsened compared to 17% in the March survey.

Looking back over the previous twelve months, 40% of respondents reported a fall in sales volumes and an equal proportion reported improved sales volumes, but 70% reported reduced selling prices, 30% no change and none reported any increase in timber selling prices.  Production costs continued to rise for 40% of respondents.

The majority of respondents (80%) expect sales volumes to rise in the twelve months ahead and a similar proportion expect selling prices to remain unchanged or to even achieve a modest increase.  As a result, the majority expect profitability to remain unchanged or slightly improve.

Respondents remain committed to investment with 60% looking to have increased investment in the twelve months.